AgPenjejak Harga Perak

Current Situation

As of 06 October 2026, silver (XAG/USD) is trading near two-month lows around $60–61. Elevated US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are outweighing support from soft jobs data, keeping prices under pressure after a weekly drop of more than 6%.

Key Drivers

• Rising US Treasury yields (10-year near 5.31%, highest since 2002) and a stronger dollar are raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, as noted by FXStreet, Trading Economics and Kitco.
• Soft September jobs data (NFP +29k vs ~90k expected, unemployment 4.2%) cut October Fed hike odds to roughly 22–24%, briefly lifting prices on Monday before yields reasserted control (Kitco, FXStreet).
• Middle East tensions, including Houthi strikes, boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar; oil eased on supply signals while ISM services prices jumped, adding mixed inflation pressure.
• Technical weakness: price sits below key moving averages, testing $60 support after the weekly rout, with bounce attempts meeting resistance near $61.7–62 (FXStreet/Markets Cafe, Kitco, FXEmpire).
• Industrial shifts: solar thrifting and slower deployment raise talk of a possible 2027 surplus, though a 2026 structural deficit of ~46 Moz is still forecast; India physical demand is rebounding ahead of festival season (CNBC TV18, Kitco, Deutsche Bank via Kitco).

Short-Term Outlook (1-7 days)

Price action remains fragile near $60. Support levels to watch are $60, then $59.69–$59.34 and $56–57 on a break. Resistance sits at $61.74–62; a sustained move above that opens room toward the 50-day average near $64. Yields and the dollar are likely to set the near-term tone.

Long-Term Outlook (1-3 months)

The broader technical structure stays bearish with lower highs and lows, though physical deficits and India restocking offer underlying support. BMO Capital (via Kitco) sees a Q4 average near $67.40 after cutting earlier forecasts. Brokerages cited by CNBC TV18 expect consolidation as solar demand softens and balances loosen toward a possible 2027 surplus. Heraeus notes a key test near $60 that could mark a bottom if prices reclaim higher ground.

What to Watch

Fed minutes (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday) and consumer sentiment (Friday) will influence yield and rate-path expectations. Persistence of multi-decade-high yields, whether $60 support holds, Middle East/Hormuz developments, the pace of solar thrifting versus India festival demand, and any shift in dollar strength remain the main swing factors.